William Benter
Additional contact information William Benter: HK Betting Syndicate, Hong Kong
The most Wicult and time-consuming step in creating a computer based betting system is the development of the fundamental handicapping model. That is, the model whose final output is an estimate of each horse's probability of winning. The type of model used by the author is the multinomial logit model proposed by Bolton and Chapman (1 9 8 6). This model is well suited to horse racing. This free horse racing system can be used with any selection process and can be used with horses that are short prices as well as big prices too. So may horses come close to winning but don't actually come first in their races. Horses beaten by a nose, a short head or simply losing the expected lead in the last 100 yards of a race.
Chapter 19 in Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 2008, pp 183-198 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
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Abstract: AbstractThis paper examines the elements necessary for a practical and successful computerized horse race handicapping and wagering system. Data requirements, handicapping model development, wagering strategy, and feasibility are addressed. A logit-based technique and a corresponding heuristic measure of improvement are described for combining a fundamental handicapping model with the public's implied probability estimates. The author reports significant positive results in five years of actual implementation of such a system. This result can be interpreted as evidence of inefficiency in pari-mutuel racetrack wagering. This paper aims to emphasize those aspects of computer handicapping which the author has found most important in practical application of such a system.
Keywords:Racetrack Efficiency; Racetrack Betting Market; Racetrack Betting; Win Market; Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes:C01C7B23F65 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Date: 2008 References:Add references at CitEc CitationsTrack citations by RSS feed
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Points Based Staking: Beginner to Winner
Horse racing wagering is an easy way to add even more excitement to the celebrated sport of kings, but while casually picking winners based on trivial factors such as a catchy name or attractive racing colors can yield a lucky break once in a while, consistently making money from these wagers requires sticking to a defined points based staking system.
A points based staking system is a methodical ranking process that can show a given horse’s likelihood of victory in a race based on past performance, present track conditions and the competing field, and working with such a system can greatly increase your odds of picking winners over time.
My Winners: Easy Point System for Horse Racing WageringComputer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf FormatManaging your Investment
Successfully generating a profit over time from horse racing wagers requires a fairly substantial initial investment of staking money. This wagering pot is then divided up into points, and determines how much you have to stake on each bet. Managing your investment judiciously is critical to sustained profits, as even a winning bet can end up losing money in the long run by choosing an unprofitable wager. The most successful bettors are known as professional handicappers, and they work to find the most profitable bets while minimizing their losses on unlikely wagers.
Handicapping horse races begins with an examination of the various factors that go into winning a race, which allows a calculation of the appropriate amount to place on a bet. This calculation starts with 100, or all of your staking pot, but horse racing tracks typically collect a portion of all wagers placed on the day to cover track expenses. This fee is known to insiders as the “vig,” and as the typical rate is 20 percent, most calculation systems in widespread use, start at 80.
Next, the 80 can be divided by the size of the field to show how much each factor will determine the winner of the race. For example, an event with an 8-horse field would render an equation of 80 divided by 8, equaling 10. This figure can then be converted to a percentage, making each factor worth 10 percent, or a “unit” for handicapping purposes.
Factors
Horse racing is known for its exciting and unpredictable finishes, but the vast majority of horse races can be narrowed down to a few true contenders long before the starting gun by considering the abilities of each horse. An evaluation for handicapping purposes starts with finding the class horse, which is calculated by dividing the horse’s yearly winnings by the number of races won if it has had 5 races or more, and the winnings by the number of starts for horses with less races. The horse with the highest winnings per start average is the class of the field and receives a unit.
The next most important factor is consistency, which is determined by dividing the number of starts by the wins accumulated over the year. Jockey winning percentage and trainer winning percentage are also highly indicative factors of a horse’s chances at the victory circle, each worth a ranking unit on their own. Speed ratings are commonly used to measure the capabilities of horses, but where they are unavailable the horse with the fastest time on the surface of the day and at the current race distance receives the unit. Also factored in is the horse’s last racing performance, with the most impressive display receiving a unit in the factoring process.
After determining the influence of central factors for each horse in the race, percentages can be assigned to each runner. The class horse of the race receives a 10 percent ranking bonus, and the factors are tallied to give each horse a projected chance at winning, shown as a percentage. These percentages can then be converted into fractions, meaning that a horse with a 50 percent ranking would win races roughly half the time.
Favorable Odds
From this point, ensuring a profit on horse racing wagers is done by taking advantage of favorable odds. For a horse ranked at 50 percent, any wager set to pay more than $4 for every $2 wagered represents a profitable bet, and as the odds constantly change leading up to the race, savvy bettors watch the odds carefully until the last minute before placing a wager guaranteed to show a profit as a winning bet.
Wagering on horse races is one of the oldest forms of public entertainment, and handicapping horses is a way to turn the fortunes of the day in your favor. There are many effective horse ranking systems that help horse racing enthusiasts gain an edge, and understanding the basics of how it’s done can help you devise your own advanced system and achieve even more consistent success.
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping And Wagering Systems Pdf Software
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